Large parts of western and central Victoria, as well as south and west Gippsland, are facing an increased risk of fire in early autumn, according to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn, released today.
A lack of rain over the past 12-24 months has led to increased fuel in forests and heathlands. This has already resulted in large, fast-running fires in the Grampians and the Little Desert over summer.
With average rainfall expected in Autumn, the availability of fuels in forests, woodlands and heathlands is expected to remain high. Forecast warmer than average maximum temperatures may also further increase fuel availability in western and central Victoria. This will make it easier for fires to start and spread.
Across the rest of the state, Victorians can expect normal fire potential. However, fast running fires are possible on dry and windy days in areas with dry or cured vegetation.
Conditions may delay planned burning in some parts of the state, but may also increase opportunities to target areas not typically available for burning in autumn.
Emergency services will continue to monitor conditions to identify key risk areas leading into the autumn period.
Victoria remains well prepared for the potential of fires, with a mix of water bombing aircraft, air supervision and air intelligence gathering aircraft positioned across the state to support our dedicated volunteer and career firefighters on the ground.
The Outlook for Autumn is developed by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council and supported by the Bureau of Meteorology along with state and territory fire and land managers.
It’s important for communities to understand their local risks. Keep up to date with the Fire Danger Ratings on the VicEmergency app and VicEmergency website.
Quotes attributable to Emergency Management Commissioner, Tim Wiebusch
‘The Grampians and Little Desert fires showed just how fast fires can start and spread. With no significant rainfall expected this autumn, we all must remain vigilant the risk of fire across the state.
“Understand your local risks, never rely on one source of emergency information and tune in to your local emergency broadcaster.’
Quotes attributable to Country Fire Authority Chief Officer, Jason Heffernan
‘While conditions remain dry with little rain forecast in certain parts of the state over coming weeks, the fire risk will continue but our crews are ready and will adapt to changes as they develop through autumn.
‘Victorians should continue to maintain their properties and stay informed of their local risks so they can take action to protect their families in the event of a fire’
Quotes attributable to Forest Fire Management Victoria Chief Fire Officer, Chris Hardman
‘The seasonal outlook for autumn shows a higher chance of warmer maximum temperatures into March and April, which may delay the start of planned burning in some parts of the state. There may also be opportunities to deliver planned burning in areas that are not usually available under autumn conditions.
‘Autumn typically provides our crews more opportunities to conduct planned burns, as the weather is more stable, and fire behaviour tends to be manageable and predictable.
‘As soon as favourable weather and forest conditions arrive, we’ll be making sure all available resources are delivering planned burning, with a strong focus on priority areas like Midlands, Yarra Ranges, Murrindindi, Ovens, Otways and Latrobe Valley.’
Quotes attributable to Deputy Fire Rescue Commissioner, Michelle Cowling
‘Even with the seasonal change, the drier conditions mean that none of us can afford to be complacent about the fire risk.
‘Bush and grassfires can quickly take hold in regional and urban areas, with many of us living close to bushland, parks or grasslands. Stay aware of the risks, have your property prepared and have a plan of what to do if a fire starts.’
Quotes attributable to Victoria State Emergency Service State Agency Commander, David Baker
‘Despite the autumn forecast, we know weather can quickly shift in Victoria, so it’s important for communities to be storm smart, engage proactively with Local Flood Guides and other emergency resources, and download the VicEmergency app to stay up to date with any warnings and emergency messaging in their area.
‘While we are in this period of warmer and drier weather, we encourage Victorians to consider how they might ready their property, their neighbours, and their community for any adverse conditions that arise. You can help by assembling an emergency kit, reaching out to your neighbours, and contributing to or joining your local VICSES unit.’
MEDIA CONTACT:
Emergency Management Victoria via the State Control Centre: 1300 287 289 or sccvic.media@scc.vic.gov.au
